Dr. Mariana Nold

Areas of research

  • Modelling: Focus on variable selection and functional forms of continuous predictors in model building
  • Bayesian statistics: Application of methods such as posterior predictive checking for model evaluation
  • Model uncertainty: Analysis and communication of statistical uncertainties
  • Replication, reproduction & reanalysis: Educational use to promote transparency and understanding
  • CV

    Since 4/2017: Research associate in the Department of Methods of Empirical Social Research, Institute of Sociology, Jena

    6/2014 – 3/2017: Research associate, Jena University Hospital, IMSID

    03/2010 – 04/2014 PhD at the University of Bamberg, Department of Statistics and Econometrics

    06/2008 – 10/2010 Research associate, University of Bamberg

    10/2002 – 10/2008 Studies in Statistics, University of Munich (LMU)

  • Teaching

    Courses in the 2026 summer semester

    Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    Applied Quantitative Data Analysis (Practice)
    Quantitative Methods I (Practice) 

    Courses in previous semesters

    Winter Semester 2025/26

    • Inferential Statistics (Lecture)
    • Inferential Statistics (Practice)
    • Data Analysis in Criminology – Methods and Practice in R (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods I (Practice) 

    Summer Semester 2025

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Application-Oriented Quantitative Data Analysis (Practice)
    • Regression with R (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods I (Practice) 

    Winter Semester 2024/25

    • Inductive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Inductive Statistics (Practice)
    • Linear Regression with R: Model Diagnostics and Presentation of Results (Practice)
    • Passive Methodological Competence – Application Area ‘Human-Computer Interaction (HCI)’ (Practice)
    • Statistical Methods Consultation

    Summer Semester 2024

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Application-oriented Quantitative Data Analysis (Practice)
    • Linear Regression with R: Regression Diagnostics (Practice)

    Winter Semester 2023/24

    • Inferential Statistics (Lecture)
    • Inferential Statistics (Practice)
    • Presentation of Linear Regression Results (Seminar)
    • Linear Regression Diagnostics (Seminar)
    • Statistical Methods Consultation

    Summer Semester 2023

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Application-Oriented Quantitative Data Analysis (Practice)

    Winter Semester 2022/23

    • Inferential Statistics (Lecture)
    • Inferential Statistics (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods II (Practice)
    • Introduction to Bayesian Statistics (Seminar)

    Summer Semester 2022

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods I (Practice)
    • Application-oriented quantitative data analysis (Practice)

    Winter Semester 2021/22

    • Inferential Statistics (Lecture)
    • Inferential Statistics (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods II (Practice)
    • Introduction to Bayesian Inference with Stata (Seminar)

    Summer Semester 2021

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods I (Practice)
    • Application-Oriented Quantitative Data Analysis (Practice)

    Winter Semester 2020/2021

    • Inferential Statistics (Lecture)
    • Inferential Statistics (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods II (Practice)
    • Statistical Methods Consultation
    • Statistics Revision Course for BA Students

    Summer Semester 2020

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods I (Practice)
    • Understanding and Discussing Quantitative Sociological Studies (with/without prior knowledge of multiple regression) (Practice)

    Winter Semester 2019/2020

    • Inferential Statistics (Lecture)
    • Inferential Statistics (Practice)
    • Inferential Statistics (Tutorial)
    • Quantitative Methods II (Practice)
    • Linear and Logistic Regression with STATA (MA Seminar)
    • Statistical Methods Consultation

    Summer Semester 2019

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Tutorial)
    • Quantitative Methods I (Practice)
    • Application-oriented quantitative data analysis: Reading and discussing quantitative sociological works (Seminar)

    Winter Semester 2018/2019

    • Quantitative Methods II (Practice)
    • Inductive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Inductive Statistics (Practice)
    • Introduction to Bayesian Statistics with R (Seminar)

    Summer Semester 2018

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods I (Practice)
    • Application-oriented data analysis (Practice)

    Winter semester 2017/18

    • Inferential statistics (Lecture)
    • Inferential statistics (Practice)
    • Inferential statistics (Tutorial)
    • Quantitative Methods II (Practice)
    • Linear and logistic regressions with STATA (MA seminar)

    Summer Semester 2017

    • Descriptive Statistics (Lecture)
    • Descriptive Statistics (Practice)
    • Quantitative Methods in Empirical Social Research I (Practice)

    Winter Semester 2016/17

    Compulsory elective course in the area of ‘Long-term care in the outpatient sector’ (Outpatient-oriented medicine): Risk Assessment and Risk Communication in Therapy and Early Detection Measures, Jena University Hospital

    Summer Semester 2016

    Seminar on Biometry and Epidemiology, Jena University Hospital, IMSID
    Compulsory elective course in the field of ‘Epidemiological Aspects in Clinical Care’ (Clinically-oriented Medicine): Risk calculator for the clinical diagnosis of coronary heart disease, Jena University Hospital
    1 seminar per group, 2 lectures per group and seminar

    Summer semester 2015

    Seminar on Biometry and Epidemiology, Jena University Hospital, IMSID

    Winter semester 2008/09

    Applied Statistics on the PC, Chair of Statistics and Econometrics at the University of Bamberg

  • Publications

    Articles

    R. Puhr, G. Heinze, M. Nold, L. Lusa, A. Geroldinger, “Firth’s logistic regression with rare events: accurate effect estimates and predictions?”, Statist. Med. 36 2302-2317 (2017)

    A. Moschovas, P. A. Amorim, M. Nold, G. Faerber, M. Diab, T. Buenger, T. Doenst, “Percutaneous cannulation for cardiopulmonary bypass in minimally invasive surgery is associated with reduced groin complications”, Interactive CardioVascular and Thoracic Surgery 25 377-383 (2017)

    Georg W Wurschi, Karim Kentouche, Karl-Heinz Herrmann, Ines Krum-bein, Mariana Nold, James F Beck, Jürgen R Reichenbach “Evaluation of liver tissue by ultrasound elastography and clinical parameters in children with multiple blood cell transfusions”, Pediatric Radiology 49(7):897-905 (2019)

    Geroldinger, A., Lusa, L., Nold, M. et al. Leave-one-out cross-validation, penalization, and differential bias of some prediction model performance measures—a simulation study. Diagn Progn Res 7, 9 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-023-00146-0

    Monographs

    Doctoral thesis: “Behavior of convergence in logistic regression models - Assessing the drop of the Kolmogorov distance between the sampling distribution and the asymptotic distribution of estimators and test statistics in logistic regression analysis”,doctoral Thesis, Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg, 2014

    Other

    Diploma thesis: Computing and analyzing the profile likelihood of complex stochastical models using Java: Application to an outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo

    Nold, M.; Meinfelder, F.; Kaplan, D. "On the Improvement of Predictive Modeling Using Bayesian Stacking and Posterior Predictive Checking", February 2024External link

    Nold, M., & Heinze, G. (2025). Commentary: Teaching Statistics as Minor Subject—Handing on Fire, Not Worshipping Ashes. Statistics in Medicine, 44(13-14), e10284.

  • Memberships

    German Statistical Society

    STRATOS Initative (https://stratostg2.github.io/External link)